Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 35.034550 37.957068 41.180791 45.035106 49.565462 54.783490 61.342874
2025-09-07 30.290345 34.003035 38.374981 44.014797 51.276712 60.594391 73.986530
2025-09-14 27.504243 31.535455 36.475688 43.167244 52.336022 65.069918 85.463107
2025-09-21 25.005746 29.051162 34.135537 41.245452 51.408334 66.347432 92.357286
2025-09-28 23.642712 27.826047 33.217543 41.006456 52.648254 70.869101 105.894317
2025-10-05 23.467076 28.082163 34.227551 43.501289 58.252946 83.585044 140.820625
2025-10-12 22.341909 26.970635 33.242374 42.935301 58.908524 87.908760 160.863379
2025-10-19 21.643935 26.378945 32.918930 43.301187 61.124493 95.740794 196.208630
2025-10-26 21.335994 26.293285 33.295815 44.775411 65.507513 109.503346 267.810250
2025-11-02 20.728772 25.739869 32.929386 44.986565 67.584097 118.947108 343.465192
2025-11-09 19.728044 24.568618 31.555202 43.376337 65.860187 118.430850 369.710426
2025-11-16 18.813948 23.483201 30.253985 41.789717 63.987641 117.085812 391.121684
2025-11-23 18.477563 23.335673 30.554332 43.315908 69.489342 140.938981 789.603388
2025-11-30 17.588532 22.339682 29.484205 42.350072 69.623686 149.788046 1318.201777
2025-12-07 16.834589 21.494029 28.578281 41.557893 69.957694 159.921442 2993.004160
2025-12-14 15.952616 20.408191 27.210871 39.757316 67.549753 158.298904 4956.161337
2025-12-21 15.453367 19.875829 26.705429 39.533126 68.947149 173.909378 NaN
2025-12-28 15.461199 20.113871 27.476967 41.870430 77.587251 237.754852 NaN
2026-01-04 14.972163 19.551796 26.859151 41.340758 78.303917 260.056732 NaN
2026-01-11 14.662810 19.255691 26.674344 41.683206 81.700134 311.816941 NaN
2026-01-18 14.532688 19.234751 26.961255 43.061570 88.870357 435.511888 NaN
2026-01-25 14.235701 18.929802 26.723158 43.258808 92.291966 550.288530 NaN
2026-02-01 13.718222 18.247083 25.771028 41.753524 89.274074 539.832100 NaN